- Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
- Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura
- Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Key facts
La Liga (Matchday 5): Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4-1 on . Scorers: K. Mbappe 14' (pen.), A. Carreras 17', J. Bellingham 35', S. Camello 51', K. Mbappe 90'. Before the match, the FlashSport model’s most likely reading was a win for Real Madrid (80%).
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
Match summary Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
La Liga: Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4-1 (3-0 at half-time).
Scorers: Real Madrid — K. Mbappe (14', pen.), A. Carreras (17'), J. Bellingham (35'), K. Mbappe (90'); Rayo Vallecano — S. Camello (51').
Possession 56% – 44%, shots 24 – 18, expected goals (xG) 2.62 – 1.21.
- 14'K. Mbappe (pen.)Penalty goal · Real Madrid1-0
- 17'A. Carreras (assist: K. Mbappe)Goal · Real Madrid2-0
- 35'J. Bellingham (assist: Vinicius Junior)Goal · Real Madrid3-0
- 46'E. Camavinga ↑ F. Valverde ↓Substitution · Real Madrid
- 51'S. CamelloGoal · Rayo Vallecano3-1
- 67'O. Valentin ↑ G. Bouare ↓Substitution · Rayo Vallecano
- 67'R. Belaid ↑ P. Diaz ↓Substitution · Rayo Vallecano
- 69'A. Tchouameni ↑ B. Silva ↓Substitution · Real Madrid
- 72'A. Guler ↑ Y. Diomande ↓Substitution · Real Madrid
- 75'M. Sadick ↑ U. Lopez ↓Substitution · Rayo Vallecano
- 75'Alemao ↑ S. Camello ↓Substitution · Rayo Vallecano
- 76'Pathé Ismaël CissYellow card · Rayo Vallecano
- 85'I. Balliu ↑ A. Pedrosa ↓Substitution · Rayo Vallecano
- 89'M. Cucurella ↑ Vinicius Junior ↓Substitution · Real Madrid
- 90'K. Mbappe (assist: A. Guler)Goal · Real Madrid4-1
Match stats – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- 2.62Expected goals (xG)1.21
- 24Total shots18
- 11Shots on target7
- 8Shots off target6
- 5Blocked shots5
- 16Shots inside box8
- 8Shots outside box10
- 11Corners5
- 1Offsides0
- 9Fouls13
- 0Yellow cards1
- 6Goalkeeper saves7
- 543Passes415
- 494Accurate passes360
- 91%Pass accuracy87%
- -1.05Goals prevented-1.05
Official lineups Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
Official lineups published before kick-off.
Managers: Jose Mourinho (Real Madrid) · Benat San Jose (Rayo Vallecano)
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La Liga · 20:00FlashSport AI
Real MadridDRAWRayo Vallecano
80%11%9%
VERDICT🔒 in the appProbabilities calculated by the FlashSport AI before the match.
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
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Latest matches
Real MadridWLWWWRayo VallecanoWLDLWHead-to-head (H2H) last 4 matches
Pre-match statistics — both teams before kick-off
Head-to-head statistics – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
In 4 meetings, Real Madrid leads 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws; these matches produced 3 goals on average.
Real Madrid50%Rayo Vallecano0%In the last 4 meetings between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in our data, Real Madrid won 2, Rayo Vallecano won 0, and 2 matches ended in a draw. Goals: Real Madrid 7, Rayo Vallecano 5.
Latest results between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano
- Real Madrid2 - 1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0 - 0Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2 - 1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano3 - 3Real Madrid
Prediction statistics – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Over 2.5 goals in 65% of Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano matches on average, against 53% across La Liga.
Competition averages: 45 La Liga 2026-27 matches already played. Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Team profiles – Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid takes 2.4 points per match and Rayo Vallecano 1.6; Real Madrid wins 80% of their matches, Rayo Vallecano 40%.
| Form | Results | Pts / match |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 2.4 |
| Home | WWW | 3 |
| Away | LW | 1.5 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 80% | 100% | 50% |
| Total goals / match | 3.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.4 | 3.33 | 1 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.67 | 1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| xG / match | 2.98 | 2.88 | 3.09 |
| xG conceded / match | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.99 |
2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches.
| Form | Results | Pts / match |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLDLW | 1.6 |
| Home | WDWDD | 1.8 |
| Away | LLWDW | 1.4 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Total goals / match | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Both teams score | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| xG / match | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| xG conceded / match | 1.57 | 1.33 | 1.8 |
last 10 available matches.
Current form — who will win Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid shows W-L-W-W-W and Rayo Vallecano W-L-D-L-W (W = win, D = draw, L = defeat).
2.4WLWWWReal Madrid is 50% better on points per match.
According to the FlashSport AI: Real Madrid 80% · draw 11% · Rayo Vallecano 9%
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
1.6WLDLW- WReal Madrid – Inter2 - 1
- LReal Betis – Real Madrid1 - 0
- WReal Madrid – Malaga4 - 0
- WReal Madrid – Real Sociedad4 - 1
- WEspanyol – Real Madrid1 - 2
- WRayo Vallecano – Racing Santander3 - 2
- LBarcelona – Rayo Vallecano5 - 2
- DRayo Vallecano – Alaves1 - 1
- LSevilla – Rayo Vallecano2 - 1
- WAlaves – Rayo Vallecano1 - 2
Goals scored – Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano: who will score more?
Real Madrid scores 2.4 goals per match and concedes 0.8; Rayo Vallecano scores 1.8 and concedes 1.6.
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Scores over 0.5 goal | 80% | 100% |
| Scores over 1.5 goal | 80% | 60% |
| Scores over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Scores over 3.5 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Fails to score | 20% | 0% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.4 | 1.8 |
Goals conceded – who will concede?
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Concedes over 0.5 goal | 80% | 80% |
| Concedes over 1.5 goal | 0% | 40% |
| Concedes over 2.5 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Concedes over 3.5 goals | 0% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Over 2.5 goals & both teams score – how many goals in Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Both teams score in 60% of Real Madrid matches and 80% of Rayo Vallecano matches (competition average: 53%).
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goal | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goal | 80% | 100% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Both score and win | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| Both score and draw | 0% | 40% | 20% |
| Both score and over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Not both and over 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 10% |
Under X goals
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 goal | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% | 35% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 70% | 65% |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80% | 70% | 75% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Corners Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano – how many corners?
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano matches average 11.9 corners; Real Madrid wins 7 per match, Rayo Vallecano 4.8 (competition: 9.9).
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 corners | 100% | 70% | 85% |
| Over 7 corners | 100% | 70% | 85% |
| Over 8 corners | 80% | 70% | 75% |
| Over 9 corners | 80% | 70% | 75% |
| Over 10 corners | 80% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 11 corners | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 12 corners | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 13 corners | 60% | 50% | 55% |
Team corners — won / conceded
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners won / match | 7 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Corners conceded / match | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Over 2.5 corners won | 100% | 60% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 corners won | 100% | 60% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 corners won | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 corners conceded | 80% | 90% | 85% |
| Over 3.5 corners conceded | 80% | 90% | 85% |
| Over 4.5 corners conceded | 80% | 70% | 75% |
Competition average: 9.9 corners per match (45 matches). Real Madrid: 5 matches with statistics; Rayo Vallecano: 10. The split of corners by half is not provided by our source.
Will Real Madrid score? · Will Rayo Vallecano score?
Scored in 80% of their matchesStrong chance
Rayo Vallecano: clean sheet in 20% of their matchesScored in 100% of their matchesStrong chance
Real Madrid: clean sheet in 20% of their matchesChance = average of the share of matches in which the team scores and the share of matches in which the opponent concedes. Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Cards Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano – how many cards?
5.1 cards per match on average for these two teams; Real Madrid receives 1.8, Rayo Vallecano 3; referee Victor Garcia Verdura shows 2.9.
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 80% | 70% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 cards | 80% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 4.5 cards | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 5.5 cards | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 6.5 cards | 20% | 40% | 30% |
Cards by half
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cards received in the 1st half (avg.) | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Cards received in the 2nd half (avg.) | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Total 1st half (avg.) | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Total 2nd half (avg.) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| More cards in the 1st half | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| More cards in the 2nd half | 80% | 70% | 75% |
Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura — 2.9 cards and 22.8 fouls per match on average over 14 matches in our data.
Competition average: 4.7 cards per match. Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Win / draw / defeat by half – Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid leads at the break in 40% of their matches, Rayo Vallecano in 30%.
1.8pts / match at half-timeReal Madrid is 29% better at half-time.
1.4pts / match at half-time| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the 1st half | 40% | 30% |
| Wins the 2nd half | 60% | 40% |
| Draw in the 1st half | 60% | 50% |
| Draw in the 2nd half | 0% | 40% |
| Loses the 1st half | 0% | 20% |
| Loses the 2nd half | 40% | 20% |
| Over 0.5 goal at half-time | 80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goal at half-time | 80% | 40% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Who will score first in Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid opened the scoring in 80% of their matches with a goal, Rayo Vallecano in 70%.
Real MadridRayo VallecanoGoals by 10-minute period
| Minutes | Real Madrid · total | Real Madrid · scored | Real Madrid · conceded | Rayo Vallecano · total | Rayo Vallecano · scored | Rayo Vallecano · conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 min | 6% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 11–20 min | 13% | 17% | 0% | 15% | 17% | 13% |
| 21–30 min | 25% | 25% | 25% | 15% | 11% | 19% |
| 31–40 min | 6% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 41–50 min | 6% | 0% | 25% | 12% | 22% | 0% |
| 51–60 min | 6% | 8% | 0% | 9% | 6% | 13% |
| 61–70 min | 6% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
| 71–80 min | 13% | 8% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 13% |
| 81–90 min | 19% | 17% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 25% |
Goals by 15-minute period
| Minutes | Real Madrid · total | Rayo Vallecano · total |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | 13% | 12% |
| 16–30 min | 31% | 24% |
| 31–45 min | 13% | 9% |
| 46–60 min | 6% | 18% |
| 61–75 min | 6% | 12% |
| 76–90 min | 31% | 26% |
Share of goals (scored + conceded) falling in each period; stoppage time counts in the 45th and 90th minute. Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Shots, offsides, fouls and possession – Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid shoots 19.2 times per match (8.6 on target), Rayo Vallecano 12.9 (5.8 on target); average possession 53% against 49%.
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots / match | 19.2 | 12.9 | 16.05 |
| Shot conversion rate (%) | 13 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Shots on target / match | 8.6 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| Shots off target / match | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.95 |
| Shots per goal scored | 8 | 7.17 | 7.59 |
| Over 10.5 shots | 100% | 60% | 80% |
| Over 11.5 shots | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 12.5 shots | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 13.5 shots | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 14.5 shots | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 15.5 shots | 100% | 30% | 65% |
| 4+ shots on target | 100% | 70% | 85% |
| 5+ shots on target | 100% | 70% | 85% |
| 6+ shots on target | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| 7+ shots on target | 100% | 40% | 70% |
Offsides and more
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offsides / match | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 offsides | 0% | 20% | 10% |
| Over 3.5 offsides | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Fouls committed / match | 9.6 | 15 | 12.3 |
| Fouls suffered / match | 11.4 | 10.7 | 11.05 |
| Average possession (%) | 53 | 49 | 51 |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 20% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Free kicks – Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid matches average 21 free kicks, Rayo Vallecano matches 25.7.
Every foul given awards a free kick to the opponent: a match’s total fouls therefore measures its free kicks (excluding penalties and advantage played).
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free kicks won / match | 11.4 | 10.7 | 11.05 |
| Free kicks conceded / match | 9.6 | 15 | 12.3 |
| Total free kicks / match | 21 | 25.7 | 23.35 |
| Over 20.5 free kicks | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 21.5 free kicks | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 22.5 free kicks | 40% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 23.5 free kicks | 40% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 24.5 free kicks | 20% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 25.5 free kicks | 20% | 70% | 45% |
Goal kicks and throw-ins are not provided by our data source, so they are not shown. Matches finished before kick-off — Real Madrid: 2026-27 season, all competitions — 5 matches; Rayo Vallecano: last 10 available matches.
Which players will score in Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Top scorers (La Liga): K. Mbappe (4) for Real Madrid, S. Camello (5) for Rayo Vallecano.
Top scorers – Real Madrid
- K. Mbappe 4
- J. Bellingham 2
- Vinicius Junior 1
- A. Guler 1
- C. Espi 1
- T. Courtois 0
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season (4 matches).
Top scorers – Rayo Vallecano
- S. Camello 5
- A. Ratiu 1
- A. Garcia 1
- F. Lejeune 0
- P. Ciss 0
- U. Lopez 0
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season (4 matches).
Who will get a card?
Cards received – Real Madrid
- Vinicius Junior 2
- I. Konate 2
- E. Camavinga 2
- A. Guler 1
- A. Carreras 1
- T. Courtois 0
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season.
Cards received – Rayo Vallecano
- S. Camello 2
- Fran Pérez 2
- F. Lejeune 1
- P. Ciss 1
- U. Lopez 1
- J. de Frutos 1
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season.
Cards per 90 minutes
Cards / 90 – Real Madrid
- I. Konate 0.67
- Vinicius Junior 0.51
- A. Guler 0.43
- T. Courtois 0
- D. Huijsen 0
- K. Mbappe 0
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season — players with at least 180 minutes played.
Cards / 90 – Rayo Vallecano
- S. Camello 0.73
- O. Valentin 0.35
- A. Garcia 0.33
- J. de Frutos 0.3
- U. Lopez 0.27
- F. Lejeune 0.25
La Liga statistics, 2026-27 season — players with at least 180 minutes played.
The teams in numbers
Real Madrid
- Before this match, Real Madrid took 12 points from their last 5 matches (2.4 per match), scored 12 goals and saw both teams score in 3 of them.
- Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet 1 time in their last 5 matches and conceded 4 goals over that period.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of their 3 home matches in the sample studied.
- Both teams scored in 60% of Real Madrid matches (5 matches, this season).
Rayo Vallecano
- Before this match, Rayo Vallecano took 7 points from their last 5 matches (1.4 per match), scored 9 goals and saw both teams score in 5 of them.
- Over their last 5 matches, Rayo Vallecano has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats.
- Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet 0 times in their last 5 matches and conceded 11 goals over that period.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of their 5 away matches in the sample studied.
- Both teams scored in 80% of Rayo Vallecano matches (10 matches, recent form).
Match analysis
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano meet on Saturday, 12 September 2026 — La Liga (Matchday 5), at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid).
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano have met 4 times in our data. Real Madrid has 2 wins, Rayo Vallecano 0 wins, and 2 matches ended in a draw.
Last meeting (01/02/2026): Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
These meetings produced an average of 3 goals per match, and both teams scored in 75% of them.
This season, Real Madrid takes an average of 3 points per home match (3 matches), and Rayo Vallecano 1.4 points per away match (5 matches).
According to the FlashSport AI, the chances are 80% for Real Madrid, 11% for the draw and 9% for Rayo Vallecano.
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
Frequently asked questions
Where and when was Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano played?
The match was played on Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid — La Liga.
Who won Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4-1. Scorers: K. Mbappe 14' (pen.), A. Carreras 17', J. Bellingham 35', S. Camello 51', K. Mbappe 90'.
What is the head-to-head record of Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Out of 4 meetings in our data: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 2 draws and 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano.
Who are the top scorers for Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano this season?
K. Mbappe (4 goals) for Real Madrid, S. Camello (5 goals) for Rayo Vallecano (La Liga).
Sources and method
All statistics on this page are calculated by FlashSport from matches actually played before kick-off (7,817 matches in our archive). Each block states its sample. Data our source does not provide is never estimated. The AI probabilities come from the FlashSport model, calculated before the match.
Page updated on 10 October 2026 at 03:40.
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