Estonia
Luxembourg
- A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
- Referee: Paweł Raczkowski
- Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Key facts
UEFA Nations League (League C - 3): Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0 on . Scorer: Rasmus Peetson 5'. Before the match, the FlashSport model’s most likely reading was a win for Luxembourg (38%).
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
Match summary Estonia – Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League: Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0 (1-0 at half-time).
Scorers: Estonia — Rasmus Peetson (5').
Possession 46% – 54%, shots 14 – 8.
- 5'Rasmus PeetsonGoal · Estonia1-0
- 29'Enes MahmutovicYellow card · Luxembourg
- 43'Jürgen HennYellow card · Estonia
- 62'H. Kadamani ↑ Aiman Dardari ↓Substitution · Luxembourg
- 62'S. Thill ↑ Enzo dos Santos ↓Substitution · Luxembourg
- 66'Karel Mustmaa ↑ Mattias Männilaan ↓Substitution · Estonia
- 68'Omar NatamiYellow card · Luxembourg
- 72'M. Soomets ↑ Kevor Palumets ↓Substitution · Estonia
- 73'T. Rupil ↑ Vincent Thill ↓Substitution · Luxembourg
- 73'Märten KuuskYellow card · Estonia
- 78'Vahid SelimovićYellow card · Luxembourg
- 80'M. Ainsalu ↑ Mattias Käit ↓Substitution · Estonia
- 82'Karol MetsYellow card · Estonia
- 83'M. Olesen ↑ Florian Bohnert ↓Substitution · Luxembourg
- 83'E. Džogović ↑ Enes Mahmutovic ↓Substitution · Luxembourg
- 84'Leandro BarreiroYellow card · Luxembourg
- 85'Eldin DzogovicYellow card · Luxembourg
- 87'Mathias OlesenYellow card · Luxembourg
- 88'Markus PoomYellow card · Estonia
Match stats – Estonia vs Luxembourg
- 14Total shots8
- 9Shots on target2
- 1Shots off target4
- 4Blocked shots2
- 10Shots inside box4
- 4Shots outside box4
- 7Corners3
- 4Offsides2
- 13Fouls12
- 3Yellow cards6
- 0Red cards0
- 2Goalkeeper saves8
- 448Passes529
- 395Accurate passes478
Official lineups Estonia – Luxembourg
Official lineups published before kick-off.
Managers: J. Henn (Estonia) · J. Strasser (Luxembourg)
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UEFA Nations League · 17:00FlashSport AIEstoniaDRAWLuxembourg32%30%38%
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Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
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Latest matches
EstoniaDDLuxembourgLWHead-to-head (H2H) last 0 matches
Pre-match statistics — both teams before kick-off
Head-to-head statistics – Estonia vs Luxembourg
No meetings between Estonia and Luxembourg in our data.
Prediction statistics – Estonia vs Luxembourg
Over 2.5 goals in 50% of Estonia and Luxembourg matches on average, against 47% across UEFA Nations League.
Competition averages: 68 UEFA Nations League 2026-27 matches already played. Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Team profiles – Estonia and Luxembourg
Estonia takes 1 point per match and Luxembourg 1.5; Estonia wins 0% of their matches, Luxembourg 50%.
| Form | Results | Pts / match |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | DD | 1 |
| Home | – | |
| Away | DD | 1 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0% | – | 0% |
| Total goals / match | 1 | – | 1 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | – | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | – | 0.5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | – | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | – | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 50% |
| xG / match | – | – | – |
| xG conceded / match | – | – | – |
last 2 available matches.
| Form | Results | Pts / match |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 1.5 |
| Home | L | 0 |
| Away | W | 3 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Total goals / match | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored / match | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| xG / match | – | – | – |
| xG conceded / match | – | – | – |
last 2 available matches.
Current form — who will win Estonia – Luxembourg?
Over their last 2 matches, Estonia shows D-D and Luxembourg L-W (W = win, D = draw, L = defeat).
1DDLuxembourg is 33% worse on points per match.
According to the FlashSport AI: Estonia 32% · draw 30% · Luxembourg 38%
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
1.5LW- DBulgaria – Estonia0 - 0
- DIceland – Estonia1 - 1
- LLuxembourg – Iceland0 - 3
- WBulgaria – Luxembourg1 - 2
Goals scored – Estonia – Luxembourg: who will score more?
Estonia scores 0.5 goals per match and concedes 0.5; Luxembourg scores 1 and concedes 2.
| Estonia | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Scores over 0.5 goal | 50% | 50% |
| Scores over 1.5 goal | 0% | 50% |
| Scores over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Scores over 3.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Fails to score | 50% | 50% |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 1 |
Goals conceded – who will concede?
| Estonia | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Concedes over 0.5 goal | 50% | 100% |
| Concedes over 1.5 goal | 0% | 50% |
| Concedes over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Concedes over 3.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 2 |
Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Over 2.5 goals & both teams score – how many goals in Estonia – Luxembourg?
Both teams score in 50% of Estonia matches and 50% of Luxembourg matches (competition average: 49%).
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goal | 50% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goal | 50% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Both score and win | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Both score and draw | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Both score and over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Not both and over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 25% |
Under X goals
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 goal | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Under 4.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Corners Estonia – Luxembourg – how many corners?
Estonia and Luxembourg matches average 8.8 corners; Estonia wins 4.5 per match, Luxembourg 3 (competition: 8.5).
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 corners | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 7 corners | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 8 corners | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 9 corners | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 10 corners | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 11 corners | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 12 corners | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Over 13 corners | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Team corners — won / conceded
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners won / match | 4.5 | 3 | 3.75 |
| Corners conceded / match | 6.5 | 3.5 | 5 |
| Over 2.5 corners won | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 corners won | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 corners won | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 corners conceded | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 corners conceded | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 4.5 corners conceded | 100% | 50% | 75% |
Competition average: 8.5 corners per match (68 matches). Estonia: 2 matches with statistics; Luxembourg: 2. The split of corners by half is not provided by our source.
Will Estonia score? · Will Luxembourg score?
Scored in 50% of their matchesStrong chance
Luxembourg: clean sheet in 0% of their matchesScored in 50% of their matchesMedium chance
Estonia: clean sheet in 50% of their matchesChance = average of the share of matches in which the team scores and the share of matches in which the opponent concedes. Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Cards Estonia – Luxembourg – how many cards?
4.5 cards per match on average for these two teams; Estonia receives 2, Luxembourg 2; referee Paweł Raczkowski, Poland shows 5.
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 cards | 50% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 4.5 cards | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 5.5 cards | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 6.5 cards | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cards by half
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cards received in the 1st half (avg.) | 0 | 0.5 | 0.25 |
| Cards received in the 2nd half (avg.) | 2 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| Total 1st half (avg.) | 1 | 2 | 1.5 |
| Total 2nd half (avg.) | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| More cards in the 1st half | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| More cards in the 2nd half | 100% | 50% | 75% |
Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland — 5 cards and – fouls per match on average over 1 match in our data.
Competition average: 4 cards per match. Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Win / draw / defeat by half – Estonia – Luxembourg
Estonia leads at the break in 0% of their matches, Luxembourg in 0%.
0.5pts / match at half-timeEstonia is 0% better at half-time.
0.5pts / match at half-time| Estonia | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the 1st half | 0% | 0% |
| Wins the 2nd half | 50% | 50% |
| Draw in the 1st half | 50% | 50% |
| Draw in the 2nd half | 50% | 0% |
| Loses the 1st half | 50% | 50% |
| Loses the 2nd half | 0% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 goal at half-time | 50% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goal at half-time | 0% | 100% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Who will score first in Estonia – Luxembourg?
Estonia opened the scoring in 0% of their matches with a goal, Luxembourg in 0%.
EstoniaLuxembourgGoals by 10-minute period
| Minutes | Estonia · total | Estonia · scored | Estonia · conceded | Luxembourg · total | Luxembourg · scored | Luxembourg · conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11–20 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| 21–30 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 31–40 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 25% |
| 41–50 min | 50% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 51–60 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 61–70 min | 50% | 100% | 0% | 17% | 50% | 0% |
| 71–80 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 25% |
| 81–90 min | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals by 15-minute period
| Minutes | Estonia · total | Luxembourg · total |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | 0% | 17% |
| 16–30 min | 0% | 17% |
| 31–45 min | 50% | 33% |
| 46–60 min | 0% | 0% |
| 61–75 min | 50% | 33% |
| 76–90 min | 0% | 0% |
Share of goals (scored + conceded) falling in each period; stoppage time counts in the 45th and 90th minute. Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Shots, offsides, fouls and possession – Estonia – Luxembourg
Estonia shoots 7 times per match (3.5 on target), Luxembourg 10 (4 on target); average possession 41% against 54%.
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots / match | 7 | 10 | 8.5 |
| Shot conversion rate (%) | 7 | 10 | 8.5 |
| Shots on target / match | 3.5 | 4 | 3.75 |
| Shots off target / match | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Shots per goal scored | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| Over 10.5 shots | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 11.5 shots | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 12.5 shots | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 13.5 shots | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 14.5 shots | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 15.5 shots | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4+ shots on target | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 5+ shots on target | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 6+ shots on target | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| 7+ shots on target | 0% | 50% | 25% |
Offsides and more
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offsides / match | 1.5 | 2 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 offsides | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 offsides | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fouls committed / match | 19.5 | 14 | 16.75 |
| Fouls suffered / match | 11 | 11.5 | 11.25 |
| Average possession (%) | 41 | 54 | 47.5 |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 50% |
Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Free kicks – Estonia – Luxembourg
Estonia matches average 30.5 free kicks, Luxembourg matches 25.5.
Every foul given awards a free kick to the opponent: a match’s total fouls therefore measures its free kicks (excluding penalties and advantage played).
| Estonia | Luxembourg | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free kicks won / match | 11 | 11.5 | 11.25 |
| Free kicks conceded / match | 19.5 | 14 | 16.75 |
| Total free kicks / match | 30.5 | 25.5 | 28 |
| Over 20.5 free kicks | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 21.5 free kicks | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 22.5 free kicks | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 23.5 free kicks | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 24.5 free kicks | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Over 25.5 free kicks | 100% | 50% | 75% |
Goal kicks and throw-ins are not provided by our data source, so they are not shown. Matches finished before kick-off — Estonia: last 2 available matches; Luxembourg: last 2 available matches.
Which players will score in Estonia – Luxembourg?
Top scorers (UEFA Nations League): M. Paskotši (1) for Estonia, L. Barreiro (1) for Luxembourg.
Top scorers – Estonia
- M. Paskotši 1
- K. Hein 0
- K. Mets 0
- M. Schjønning-Larsen 0
- M. Poom 0
- M. Käit 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season (2 matches).
Top scorers – Luxembourg
- L. Barreiro 1
- V. Thill 1
- A. Moris 0
- E. Mahmutović 0
- D. Carlson 0
- F. Bohnert 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season (2 matches).
Who will get a card?
Cards received – Estonia
- M. Paskotši 1
- K. Mets 1
- P. Kristal 1
- R. Peetson 1
- K. Hein 0
- M. Schjønning-Larsen 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season.
Cards received – Luxembourg
- E. Mahmutović 1
- D. Carlson 1
- L. Barreiro 1
- J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz 1
- A. Moris 0
- F. Bohnert 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season.
Cards per 90 minutes
Cards / 90 – Estonia
- M. Paskotši 0.5
- K. Mets 0.5
- K. Hein 0
- M. Schjønning-Larsen 0
- M. Poom 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season — players with at least 180 minutes played.
Cards / 90 – Luxembourg
- E. Mahmutović 0.5
- D. Carlson 0.5
- L. Barreiro 0.5
- A. Moris 0
- F. Bohnert 0
UEFA Nations League statistics, 2026-27 season — players with at least 180 minutes played.
The teams in numbers
Estonia
Not enough matches in our data.
Luxembourg
Not enough matches in our data.
Match analysis
Estonia and Luxembourg meet on Saturday, 3 October 2026 — UEFA Nations League (League C - 3), at A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn).
According to the FlashSport AI, the chances are 32% for Estonia, 30% for the draw and 38% for Luxembourg.
Statistical estimate, may be wrong. Not betting advice. 18+.
Frequently asked questions
Where and when was Estonia – Luxembourg played?
The match was played on Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn — UEFA Nations League.
Who won Estonia – Luxembourg?
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0. Scorer: Rasmus Peetson 5'.
Who are the top scorers for Estonia and Luxembourg this season?
M. Paskotši (1 goal) for Estonia, L. Barreiro (1 goal) for Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League).
Sources and method
All statistics on this page are calculated by FlashSport from matches actually played before kick-off (7,813 matches in our archive). Each block states its sample. Data our source does not provide is never estimated. The AI probabilities come from the FlashSport model, calculated before the match.
Page updated on 9 October 2026 at 23:21.
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